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Ukraine’s economy is expected to register growth in 2010 and ought to grow steadily, after being battered during the global financial crisis. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s approval of a roughly US$15.15bn stand-by arrangement in July 2010 will afford the government greater budgetary freedom in 2010 and 2011, which will filter through to construction and infrastructure spending. The country’s construction sector is in desperate need of revival after seeing its value slashed by 40.42% in 2009 to UAH22.11bn (US$2.75bn), according to BMI calculations. Indeed, we expect to see Ukraine’s construction industry stagnate in 2010 as it lags behind an upturn in economic growth, landing around UAH24.85bn (US$3.15bn) in 2010.
Major recent developments:
- Ukraine's infrastructure sector is reaping the windfalls from the new government's foreign policy reorientation towards Moscow. Russia's Sberbank announced recently, for example, that it would no longer restrict its lending in the country while reportedly arranging a loan for Ukravtodor, Ukraine's state-owned highways agency, for investments in Ukraine's road network. This loan presents a strong upside to BMI's forecasts for Ukraine's roads infrastructure industry value forecasts, which indicate that the sector will exit recession in 2010, albeit industry value will remain relatively small through to the end of our forecasts period, rising from a forecasted UAH1.95bn (US$247mn) in 2010 to UAH3.56bn (US$594mn).
- The government has received a Russian-sourced US$2bn loan for the completion of two units at Khmelnitsky Nuclear Power Plant in June 2010. The loan approval again highlights the growing influence of Russia over Ukraine especially in the area of energy policy. Support such as this will help the country’s energy sector climb out of stagnation after 2010.
- During a visit to Lviv stadium by President Yanukovych, vice-premier, Boris Kolesnikov, claimed that a number of problems delaying progress on the UEFA European Football Championship 2012 (Euro 2012) preparations had been resolved and that construction would be back on schedule by February 2011. The self-assessment was corroborated by UEFA’s decision in early-June 2010 to approve the four sites after its latest inspection. However, while preparations appear to have accelerated in recent months, the country’s next assessment is as early as August 2010 and the risk of some of the sites losing host-rights remains a possibility.
Along with preparations for Euro 2012, BMI expects Russian investment to help Ukraine’s recession in the construction sector turn around in 2011, as the industry grows by 5.28% to UAH29.08bn (US$3.93). Beyond this, growth will ease as Euro 2012-related infrastructure construction falls away, hovering at the 3% mark y-o-y through to 2014, when the sector will be worth UAH38.91bn (US6.49bn).

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