Browse the complete Report on: United States Shipping Report Q3 2010

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In Q210 the news emanating from the US maritime sector was positive with encouraging throughput data from ports such as Los Angeles (LA), Charleston, Seattle and Savannah chiming with recent Chinese trade data, which revealed a sharp rise in Chinese exports in May, including 48.5% y-o-y growth in exports to US$131.76bn. Many observers have taken the figures as a sign of a recovery in global trade activity. Indeed, Los Angeles can be seen as a reliable bellwether for transpacific trade volumes and, in 2009, was close to matching the 12% contraction in international trade volumes as it registered a 14% decrease in its container handling volumes. Container lines in particular have been quick to seize the opportunity to profit from the increase in trade demand by raising rates. Members of the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement (TSA) have successfully introduced a series of rate increases, and there are rumours of a further US$50-100 per TEU increase to be introduced in the next few weeks.
Running parallel to BMI's optimism surrounding the transpacific market, however, is our projection of a potential slowdown in the US economy in H210, which stands to affect demand for container shipping services. In our opinion, the strong growth trend in transpacific trade seen in H110 has, for the most part, been underpinned by restocking by US exporters who, during the nadir of the global economic downturn, allowed inventories to run threadbare. An improvement in US economic output in Q409 and this year prompted firms to replenish stocks, with growth driven in large part by the knock-on effects of the government's fiscal stimulus programme.
In recent weeks there have been indications that the stimulatory effects of government spending are beginning to fizzle out, with the Telegraph reporting in May 2010 that US money supply contracted by an annualised rate of 9.6% in the three months to April 2010. Concerns over slowing aggregate demand were deepened by news of a 1.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) fall in US retail sales in May, the steepest monthly contraction since October 2009. Sales by department stores were among the worst affected, registering a 1.8% contraction in volume terms. Though the latest data have yet to filter through into actual trade volumes or port throughput, news of slowing sales will be of concern to importers, and in particular shippers of Chinese-produced manufactured goods. Wary of a further decline in consumer demand, BMI believes shippers will be under pressure to reduce orders over the next few weeks, which threatens to have a marked effect on shipping volumes and port throughput.
In 2010, BMI sees US trade volumes, which fell by 11.9% in real terms last year, growing at a brisk 7.8% with imports and exports increasing by 7.7% and 7.9% respectively. In nominal terms, imports will expand by 5.9% to US$2.07trn after a recession-fuelled contraction of 22.9% last year. We expect the strongest growth in value terms will be registered by fuels, followed by ores and metals and then iron and steel. With the impetus of President Barack Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) behind it, export growth will be marginally greater than the rise in imports in value terms - up by 7.9% to US$1.59trn. The biggest export growth categories, measured in value will be fuels, ores and metals and iron and steel, in that order.
A recovery is forecast at ports across the US, through the growth in throughput is unlikely to be enough to offset the considerable contraction suffered by many facilities. At the country's largest west coast port, LA, BMI is forecasting 6.7% growth in total tonnage thisin 2010, after a contraction of 18.4% last year. By the end of 2010, LA will have handled 52.06mn tonnes. At the east coast port of New York/ New Jersey (NY/NJ), meanwhile, tonnage throughput, which fell by 20.8% in 2009, will grow by just 0.8% in real terms to 122.5mn tonnes.
In the container shipping sector the recovery is also expected to be muted with a growth of 4.6% expected at LA compared with an increase of 1.9% y-o-y at NY/NJ. By the end of 2010 LA is projected to have handled 7.06mn TEUs with NY/NJ handling 4.65mn TEUs.


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Browse the complete Report on: Kenya Shipping Report Q3 2010
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Congestion continues to be a problem at the Kenyan port of Mombasa with the country's revenue authority the latest in the line of fire for holding up the passage of goods through the port. The global economic downturn, which sent trade volumes falling, appears to have lead to little respite at Mombasa with tonnage throughput at the port growing by an incredible 16% year on year (y-o-y) in 2009. While container volumes plummeted at most ports Mombasa's box throughput remained stable, with a slight yo- y increase of 0.5%
BMI fears that congestion will be an ever increasing problem at the port of Mombasa in the mid term as we project volumes through the port to continue growing. In 2010, we predict a y-o-y growth of 7.98% in total tonnage throughput and an increase of 3.4% in box volumes. Over the rest of the mid term (2011- 2014), BMI's Shipping desk projects that total tonnage and containers will grow by a yearly average of 7% and 7.5% respectively.
BMI believes that this mid-term growth will place further strain upon the port of Mombasa and while we are encouraged that a second container terminal is planned for development at the port in the mid term, we believe that Kenya's maritime sector will continue to struggle until the sector is diversified. We therefore feel that the development of the port of Lamu could be the answer to congestion problems in Kenya's port sector. The project, which is currently at the feasibility study stage, envisages a new port facility with a draught of 18m, therefore allowing Kenya's maritime sector to cater for the next generation of larger vessels, which are coming online.
The port, however, is not due for launch until 2016 so BMI fears that shippers face continued delays at Mombasa with the problem likely to worsen as Kenya's trade increases. BMI's Country Risk team forecast that the country's exports will grow by a yearly average of 5.8% between 2010-2014, while imports are projected to increase by 3.5% over the same period.
On top of this, trade volumes of Kenya's landlocked neighbours, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi are also expected to increase over the midterm placing further pressure on the port of Mombasa.


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Browse the complete Report on:  Malaysia Shipping Report Q4 2010
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There may be doubts over the strength of the recovery across Malaysia's main ports but things are pretty clear in Penang. Major expansion plans in Penang are set to be realised in 2010 as the port expands to cater for growing demand. The port managed to defy the downturn and we project that volumes there are on track for further growth over the mid term. Expansion at the port's North Butterworth Container Terminal (NBCT) is due to be completed by the end of 2010. The project will see the port's infrastructure expanded along with the facility's capacity. Six new ZPMC cranes were delivered to the port at the end of 2009 and these are due to commence operations, allowing the port to cater for greater numbers of boxes. Off the back of this, productivity at the port is due to be increased, with the terminal setting a target throughput of 25 crane moves per hour per crane. The terminal is also expanding its infrastructure with a project to increase NBCT's existing 900m wharf by a further 600m. The expansion project is part of the port's strategy to appeal to more container lines as a major port of call, not just in Malaysia but in Asia. The port is the country's third largest container facility after the port of Klang and the port of Tanjung Pelepas, handling 958,476 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2009. We predict that the port will break the 1mn TEU milestone in 2011 and that box volumes at the port will grow by an annual average of 3.7% over the mid term (2010-2014).
The Malaysian macro-economic environment is improving, to the benefit of the ports and shipping sector. What is perhaps not yet clear is whether the improvement will be vigorous, or merely satisfactory. On the 'vigorous' side of the equation we can point to some signs of a V-shaped economic recovery after the recession of 2009. After falling by 1.7% last year, we now predict that GDP will come back strongly with 4.9% growth in 2010, led by the wholesale and retail trade and a resumption of private sector investment. Looking forward across out five-year forecast horizon, we expect GDP to grow by a respectable annual average of 4.8%. On the 'satisfactory', or even 'disappointing' side of the equation, the government will have to do some fiscal tightening, cutting back its expenditure, and the threat of a 'double dip' global slowdown in 2011 seems to be suggesting exports will not lead growth as strongly as they have in the past. That is significant as it means shipping demand and port activity may be somewhat more muted. The current trade recovery is making itself felt on the docks at the Port of Klang (POK), Malaysia's largest terminal for general cargo. BMI is projecting a vigorous increase in volume there, up by 20.7% more than offsetting the 9.6% contraction during the slump last year. At the Port of Tanjung Pelepas (POTP), we see this year's volume gaining by 13.9%. Unlike POK, here there was no contraction last year. The Port of Klang is expected to see 21.2% container handling growth this year, reversing the 8.3% fall experienced in 2009. The Port of Tanjung Pelepas will see growth of 10.0%
In real terms, we expect Malaysia's total trade (imports + exports) to recover this year, following the sharp 11.3% fall in 2009. In fact, BMI is projecting a 10.5% growth rate, almost recovering all the ground that was lost in 2009. However, next year, in 2011, as we expect a 'double dip' global economic slowdown originated by both China and the US to come into play, Malaysian trade growth will slow to 2.6%. Looking forward across our five-year medium-term forecast, we expect annual average trade growth in real terms of 5.1%. Imports will lead the way with average growth of 6.1%, ahead of exports at a slower 4.3%.
We believe there are two major risks to our Malaysia shipping and ports forecast, both on the downside. The first is if a deeper-than-expected recession emerged in 2011, particularly in China, which would have a negative ripple-effect throughout Asia, reducing trade growth and shipping demand. The second risk is political and concerns any developments which could take the government's focus off the management of the economy and the gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit. Both the ruling coalition and the main opposition party have been suffering from internal disagreements, so a 'destabilisation' scenario could originate in various different ways.
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Browse the complete Report on: Vietnam Shipping Report Q4 2010

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In the second half of 2010, there were further signs of catch-up investment in Vietnam's ports. In June, a contract was signed between the Gemalink Joint Stock Company and the Republic of Korea alliance Dealim-SAMWHA to develop the Gemalink Cai Mep Container Terminal. Based in the southern Ba Ria- Vung Tau province, the Cai Mep area is the loading location for around 70% of Vietnam's container volume. Work on the terminal was scheduled to start in August, with phase one of operations scheduled to start in 2013. The facility will have an annual capacity of 1.2mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Phase two is scheduled for completion in 2014 and will double the terminal's capacity to 2.4mn TEUs. The Gemalink Cai Mep Container Terminal is part of a much larger investment programme in Vietnam's ports. A US$4.5bn government investment plan has been confirmed, and this has been followed by foreign companies, such as the Gemalink Joint Stock Company and Dealim-SAMWHA, looking to get a foothold in the country.
In October 2009, Japan's largest shipping company, Mitsui OSK Line (MOL), announced that it planned to set up a terminal operation company to build and manage a new container terminal at Cai Mep. BMI believes that expanding the county's port infrastructure has become necessary as there has been a huge growth in Vietnamese exports to the West. It is worth noting, however, that Vietnam has some way to go in developing its ports if it is to move away from being a country chiefly served by feeder services. Vietnam is ranked some way behind its neighbours in both the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report 2009-2010, where it is ranked 99th out of 133 countries in terms of its ports infrastructure, and in the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index, where it comes in 53rd place, while its neighbours Singapore and Malaysia are placed second and 29th respectively.
The local ports and shipping industry is set to benefit from economic growth. BMI believes that in the run-up to the National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, due to be held in January 2011, the authorities will be particularly concerned to keep the economy and foreign trade growing. With evidence of a consumer boom emerging, we recently boosted our GDP growth forecast for this year to 6.0% (up from 4.4% earlier). Over the next five years, we are predicting that growth will come out at a vigorous annual average of 6.2%.
BMI is projecting an increase in volume at the Port of Ho Chi Minh City (also known as SNP, Saigon New Port), up by 6.2%, after the 5.2% contraction during the slump last year. At Da Nang Port (DNP) we see this year's volume gaining by 2.3%. Container throughput will also be in positive territory at both ports, up by 3.5% at SNP, and by 6.2% at DNP (where container volumes are much smaller). In real terms, Vietnam's total trade (imports + exports) fell by 14.5% last year, reflecting the impact of the global recession. BMI is predicting a recovery this year with 5.4% growth, followed by a slightly stronger pick-up in 2011, with 6.2% growth. Over the next five years, we calculate that total foreign trade will expand at an annual average rate of 6.5%, just ahead of the growth of the economy as a whole (+6.2%). Over this period, exports will grow at an average per annum rate of 7.3%, ahead of imports at 5.9%. We expect Vietnam to continue to run a balance of trade deficit throughout our five-year forecast period running to 2014.
There are a range of downside risks to our shipping and port forecasts. Overheating is one of them, with the possibility of the trade deficit and inflation both rising too sharply and then having to face a sharp correction. However, for the moment strong inflows of foreign direct investment are helping as a counterweight on the foreign payments front, and also playing a role in improving the country's stretched infrastructure. Power shortages are another related risk. On the political front, the government may find itself hard pressed to calm nationalist, anti-Chinese sentiment, as well as demands for political liberalisation. Ahead of the National Congress, the authorities may be a little jumpy.

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Browse the complete Report on: China Shipping Report Q4 2010

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At this stage in China's economic development, one interesting message for port operators seems to be 'go West!'. In early July, BMI noted that Maersk was investing in port development in Chongqing. Situated on the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Port of Cuntan is the largest development in the city of Chongqing, and is well placed to serve the needs of Chinese trade. Located close to the centre of mainland China, it is an ideal location from which to distribute goods to the landlocked north and west of the country. Since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, the water level can reach levels high enough to accommodate vessels weighing up to 10,000 tonnes. Maersk has been running ships to the city of Chongqing since 2004, and has now signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chongqing Port Logistics Group to undertake a joint investment in the development of the Cuntan Bonded Port Area. According to the MoU, Maersk will set up a terminal at the port, which will eventually handle around 20% of total throughput. Investment in the Port of Cuntan makes considerable sense, especially as Maersk is already running services there. Operating a terminal in a port in that it is already trading will enable the company to reduce its handling and cargo-stacking costs considerably.
China's massive economic machine is beginning to decelerate because of a combination of factors. Slowing property prices, stress in the banking system, weaker global demand for Chinese exports, the formal ending of the CNY/US$ peg, inflation and wage pressures all point to slower growth. There are also signs that the economy is rebalancing away from export-led growth to a model more strongly based on domestic demand. Political risk factors will focus on potential labour unrest and the likely reaction of the ruling Communist Party. After 11.9% GDP growth last year, we see the economy slowing in both 2010 (to 9.0%) and 2011 (to 7.6%).
BMI is projecting an increase in volume at the Port of Shanghai (POS) in 2010, up by 16% in volume terms, after the 13.6% contraction during the slump last year. Going forward we believe growth will level off quite abruptly. At the Port of Ningbo Zhoushan (PONZ) we see this year's volume gaining by a very strong 27%. In terms of box traffic, the Port of Shanghai is expected to see 10.6% container handling growth while PONZ will see growth of 5.1%.
In real terms, we expect China's total trade (imports plus exports) to surge forward this year, following the sharp 13.5% fall in 2009. The recovery will see growth of 20.3% in 2010, more than making up for last year's setback. However, 2011 will see the brakes applied again, with trade growth reducing right down to only 2.5%, making for three very volatile years. BMI's medium-term forecast is for average annual real-term trade growth of 7.9%, almost on a par with GDP, something of a slowdown from the earlier part of this decade. In fact, we believe that behind these rather stop-go figures a fundamental realignment is taking place, with the driver of the Chinese economy shifting from exports to internal demand.
The main risk factor for our China ports and shipping forecasts lies on the downside, and is represented by a greater-than-expected 'double-dip' global economic slowdown in 2011, in the worst-case scenario this might be combined with the outbreak of a US-China trade war. Reciprocal trade sanctions between Washington and Beijing could lead to quite sharp reductions in bilateral trade volumes.

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Browse the complete Report on: Chile Shipping Report Q4 2010

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There is plenty of cargo to move at Chile's largest container port, Valparaiso. Total tonnage was up by 15.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) for the first five months of the year. BMI projects a 17.4% increase at Valparaiso over the full year. May was the strongest month of the year so far, with the port handling 944,850 tonnes of cargo, equivalent to a y-o-y increase of 47.1% over May 2009 when Chile's shipping sector reached its nadir on the back of a slump in the country's trade volumes. The key driver of May's jump was imported goods, volumes of which rose by 51.6% during the month, outperforming exports, which increased by a more marginal 31.7%.
The surge in imports into Valparaiso in May ties in with a rise in the handling of containerised cargoes, which largely comprise manufactured goods produced overseas. Box shipments rose by 40.2% to 78,000 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The robust recovery seen throughout Chile's port sector in 2010 is all the more surprising given that the country's freight transport industry is still suffering the effects of a major earthquake that rocked the country on February 27, causing extensive damage to roads and port facilities, particularly in the worst-hit centre-south region. A direct comparison can be made with Haiti, where the earthquake on January 12, though less severe, measuring 7.0, had a far more devastating impact on the country's infrastructure and freight transport sector. Haiti's main international port, Port-au-Prince, was extensively damaged by the quake, with shipping services only partially resumed on February 16.
The Chilean market remains supportive of the shipping and ports sector. The strength of the country's political institutions was demonstrated by the calm reaction to the devastating February earthquake, and the focus is now on reconstruction. Investment in rebuilding work coupled with strong consumer demand is driving the economy forward. After contracting during the global recession of 2009, we are now predicting that Chile's GDP will surge forward by 5.2% in 2010, easing to 4.5% in 2011 as the global economy slows. New President Sebastián Piñera lacks a majority in Congress, which has blocked his proposed mining reforms; however, we believe this will not be a negative for day-to-day macroeconomic management.
Data from Chile's main ports confirm rising levels of activity in 2010 as both the local and global economies remain on a recovery path. For the Port of San Antonio (POSA) BMI is forecasting 11.2% growth in total tonnage this year, after an 8.3% drop in 2009. For the five years across the 2010-2014 forecast period we believe POSA tonnage will reach an impressive average annual growth rate of 9.6%, well ahead of GDP. At the Port of Valparaiso (POV) meanwhile, tonnage, which fell by a massive 26.7% in 2009, will recover strongly with growth expected to reach 17.4% in 2010, followed by 16.6% in 2011. Average annual growth over the forecast period to 2014 will be considerably stronger than POSA at 15.9%. On the box side, POV will experience 2010 growth of 22.1%. In San Antonio, container growth this year will be 13.4%.
Chile's foreign trade is forecast to recovery strongly in 2010. Imports will expand by 46.1% in nominal terms to US$72.78bn. In real (volume) terms overall imports will grow by 19% this year, offsetting the 14.3% contraction experienced in 2009. Exports will grow slower than imports both in value terms - up by 44.2% to US$90.25bn - and in real or volume terms, gaining by 14%.
We believe the main risks to our Chile ports and shipping forecasts are on the downside. The main domestic risk is of a political deadlock in Congress between the centre-right government and the centreleft opposition, which, in certain circumstances, could hold back reforms and have a negative effect on domestic growth. The main external risk is of a larger-than-expected 'double dip' slowdown in world economic growth in 2011, with knock-on effects on Chilean trade volumes.

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Browse the complete Report on: Canada Shipping Report Q4 2010
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The recovery in Canadian consumer spending is running ahead of expectations, and that is making itself felt at the country's ports. The Vancouver Fraser Port Authority reported at the end of June that Port Metro Vancouver (PMV) registered a 41.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) surge in containerised imports to 108,666 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May 2010. This is the port's highest level of imports since September 2008, and has been attributed to a sharp increase in shipping demand. PMV is one of North America's busiest ports, with 25 major marine cargo terminals that handle more than 70mn tonnes of cargo annually.
The outlook for the country's port and shipping sector was good in H210. The political scene was stable and the minority government of Stephen Harper was expected to remain on course with business-friendly economic policies. The administration will be focusing on reducing the fiscal deficit through a combination of spending restraint and improved tax revenues. Most importantly, perhaps, the Canadian economy seemed to be on a 'better than US' recovery course. Following last year's recession, when GDP fell by 2.6%, and based on a strong revival of consumer demand, BMI lifted its 2010 growth forecast for the country to 3.1% (up from 2.7% earlier).
BMI is projecting an increase in volume at Port Metro Vancouver (PMV) in 2010 of 4.7% following the 11.0% contraction during the slump last year. Going forward we believe growth will be comparatively strong, with the annual average over the 2010-2014 period coming out at 3.2%, comfortably above the general growth rate of the Canadian economy. At Port of Montreal (POM) we see this year's volume gaining by 11.7% (this follows a 9.3% drop in 2009). Average growth of volume at POM across the forecast period will be 7.1%, strongly above the general GDP growth rate. The box handling outlook is good for both ports, although growth will be stronger on the eastern seaboard (Montreal) than on the western seaboard (Vancouver).
In real terms, we expect Canada's total trade (imports plus exports) to recover this year, following the steep 13.7% fall in 2009, caused by the US and global recession. 2010 growth will be 7.5% - clearly it will take a few years before pre-2009 trade levels can be re-established. Imports will lead the way this year, with 8% growth in real terms, reflecting the consumer recovery at home; exports will grow by 7.0%. Canada will remain highly dependent on the health of the US economy, its main trading partner. The main downside risk for the Canadian ports and shipping sector comes from its powerful southern neighbour, the US. Roughly half of Canada's imports come from the US, and two-thirds of Canadian exports are shipped there. Therefore, if the expected 'double-dip' growth slowdown in the US in 2011 turns out to be more severe than expected then there will be an very direct negative impact on the Canadian economy and on shipping and port handling demand.
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Browse the complete Report on: Australia Shipping Report Q4 2010
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BMI's core view that mining companies will seek to gain ownership of freight networks such as railway lines and ports to complement their business operations and ensure their supply chain has once again been highlighted by mining companies BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal pledging to invest in new coal terminals at Australia's Abbot Point. The expansion project, like others at Australia's coal export terminals, has been driven by growing Chinese demand, which has seen vessels form queues outside New South Wales ports as demand intensifies and the country's port infrastructure struggles to cope. Although BMI believes that China's coal demand is a phenomenon that will last throughout the mid term, we are worried about the effect that a fall in Chinese coal demand in the short term will have on Australia's port expansions, as developers faced with falling coal throughput volumes may question the need for further investment.
By 2011, capacity at the port is set to be lifted from the current 21mn tonnes per year to 50mn tonnes per year. BHP Billiton and Hancock Coal plan to build two new terminals at the port, a project that when completed will see Abbot Point offering a coal export capacity of 110mn tonnes per annum. The port's management hopes to develop Abbot Point into the largest coal port in Australia and the world within 10 years, which would require significant expansion work. According to data from Ports Australia, Abbot Point is ranked fourth out of Australia's top coal export ports, handling 14.4mn tonnes of coal in the 2008/2009 financial year.
We expect cargo handled at two of Australia's key ports, the Port of Melbourne (POM) and Port of Sydney (POS), have grown at a slow to moderate rate in the financial year 2009/10. In general tonnage terms, POM will be out in front, with 5.2% growth to 30.61mn tonnes, starting to recover from the 2008/09 downturn when the port was not able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes fell by 5.6% to 29.1mn tonnes in 2008/09). 2009/10 total volume at POS is expected to gain a more subdued 2.5% to 28.49mn tonnes. In 2008/09, POS volumes dropped by 4.7% to 27.8mn tonnes. At the Port of Melbourne container movements will grow 7.4% to 2.320mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) this year, while at Port of Sydney they will be up by 4% to 1.855mn TEUs. While POS's growth has been consistently positive in recent years, POM has been more volatile, and more closely linked to international shipping fluctuations; 2008/09 box throughput at Port of Melbourne declined by 4.3%.
Affected by the global downturn, Australia's total trade fell by an estimated 4.44% in real terms in 2009 and we see a 4.9% rebound in 2010, followed by 4.2% decline in 2011. This year imports will grow more strongly than exports in real terms (6.0% vs 3.2%). The desired export-led recovery may not materialise for some time yet, as we expect Chinese demand to slow at the end of 2010 and into 2011, as Beijing tries to deflate a property bubble we fear has emerged. In doing so, we see China's construction sector decrease its demand for steel, and, therefore, this will knock on to China's demand for iron ore and coal. This will, in turn, will hit Australia, which caters for China's commodity demands.
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Original Source : – Australia Shipping Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Argentina Shipping Report Q4 2010
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Going into the second half of 2010 it was evident that the moderate recovery experienced by Argentina's shipping and ports industry was not risk-free. The threat of a blanket strike by one of Argentina's major grain worker unions in mid-June was the latest controversy facing the sector as it sought to regain momentum after 2009's downturn. Ports had been hit by a series of disputes over the preceding months, making Argentina one of the most volatile spots for freight transport operations in the Latin America region. Workers were threatening to block shipments of grains and oilseeds at export facilities unless their wage demands were met. According to the union, wages have failed to keep track with the recent surge in sales made by Argentine exporters on the back of 2009/10's bumper grains harvest. Argentina has emerged as a trouble spot from a freight transport/shipping perspective, owing to an increasing number of disruptions to port throughput, road haulage and other areas of the supply chain.
While the current economic recovery, bigger agricultural harvests and rising LNG tanker demand are positives, the road ahead contains many uncertainties. Since the difficulties of last year, the government of President Cristina Fernández has regained some of its lost popularity through deficit spending, but the money will eventually run out and a necessarily painful fiscal tightening cannot be postponed forever. Analysts believe the crunch moment may come either just before or just after the 2011 presidential elections. After a sharp deceleration in GDP growth last year to 1.0%, this year we predict a recovery of 4.3%, falling to 2.3% growth in 2011. However, BMI believes that the average annual growth rate over the next five years will be a disappointing 2.0%. To this rather sombre outlook must be added quite high levels of political risk, with high inflation fuelling industrial unrest and potential protests as the election campaign begins to take shape.
After slumping by 32.5% in 2009, this year we are predicting that tonnage volume at the Port of Buenos Aires will edge upwards by 3.7% to 8.915mn tonnes. In the medium term, we see moderate growth, averaging 4.7% to 2014 - this will, however, be twice the rate of growth of the Argentine economy. At the Port of Bahia Blanca (POBB), the tonnage downturn was spread over two years (2008 and 2009) and was less severe than in Buenos Aires. But the recovery here too will be a rather tepid affair, with tonnage set to grow by 2.9% this year to 11.304mn tonnes, and average annual growth between 2010 and 2014 projected at 3.2%.
In the container sector, we predict Buenos Aires container movements to rise by 3.4% to 940,252 TEUs, and to achieve average annual growth of 4.6%, between 2010 and 2014. At Bahia Blanca, container handling has grown steadily in the last few years from a very low base and there was no 2009 downturn. This year, we are predicting a 46.4% surge to 67,121 TEUs. Thereafter, however, medium-term average annual growth should stabilise in the high single percentage figures. Including 2010, the five-year average will be 16.0%.
Argentina's total trade (imports + exports) fell by 13.3% in 2009, with imports dropping proportionately by the greatest amount. This year, we see a modest recovery, with the combined total up by 3.6%. In the medium term to 2014, exports will grow by 5.0% per annum, imports will lag a little with growth of 4.2%, and the average for all trade will be 4.6%, lower than what has been experienced in recent years. The risks to our Argentina shipping and port projections are on the downside. The main risk is that the current government's pre-election 'borrow and spend' strategy will come unstuck, unleashing a financial crisis at some point before next year's presidential elections; such a crisis would inevitably lead to lower growth or an outright 'double dip' recession which would hit trade and freight demand.
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Original Source : – Argentina Shipping Market
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Browse the complete Report on: Egypt Shipping Report Q4 2010
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Egyptian ports, which felt the impact of the global recession last year, were seeing the first signs of recovery trickling through. In May, the Egyptian authorities reported an 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) surge in the Suez Canal's revenues to US$374.9mn in April 2010. The canal's revenue stood at US$379.4mn in March 2010. The canal recorded a slight improvement in non-oil vessels traffic and tonnage in April 2010, while its oil vessels traffic and tonnage dropped. The Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, is the third largest generator of foreign currency in the country, after tourism and remittances. Recently, the Suez Canal Authority decided to freeze canal transit tolls for 2010, keeping the freeze that was put in place for 2009. In addition, the Egyptian authorities also offered discounts to vessels transiting the Suez Canal in an effort to see out the global economic crisis.
Midway through 2010 the operating environment facing the Egyptian ports and shipping industry was good, despite political risks. Egyptian economic growth largely side-stepped the effects of the global recession in 2009. The pace of growth slowed but did not turn negative. BMI expected some further slowing in 2010, caused by weakening consumption and private investment. After 4.7% GDP growth in 2009, we predicted the pace would ease further to 4.6% in 2010, before picking up again to 4.8% in 2011. We expected the average growth rate in the period to 2014 to be 5.1%, clearly marking out the country as a regional out-performer.
The main political risk to this scenario was the vexed issue of the succession to 82-year-old Hosni Mubarak, in power for almost three decades. Parliamentary elections were due at the end of this year with the the presidential contest looming in 2011. BMI believes the opposition is still too divided to triumph and therefore expects some form of succession from inside the ruling National Democratic Party (NPD), but warns of the danger of unrest and disruption, as well as of a period of uncertainty that could adversely affect the economic climate.
The total volume of goods handled by the Port of Alexandria continued to grow through the global downturn, although we see the pace of expansion slowing sharply over our forecast period. Total tonnage rose by 8.7% to 22.096mn tonnes in 2009 and we are predicting a further 5.0% increase this year, to 23.194mn tonnes. At Port Said (PS), where transhipment business plays a bigger role, tonnage dropped by 7.1% in 2009, and we are predicting a further small drop of 0.7% to 8.832mn tonnes in 2010. Box traffic at both ports is expected to continue growing, but at a low rate, which will lag behind the expansion of the domestic economy.
BMI expects exports to remain quite strong over the medium term thanks to high energy prices and a revival in Suez Canal traffic and tourism revenues. During 2009, Egyptian trade (imports + exports) fell by 15.5% in real terms. We predict it will fall by a further 0.9% in 2010 before returning to a growth path with 3.0% expansion in 2011. Across our five-year forecast period to 2014, foreign trade will grow by an annual average of 2.9%, trailing GDP. Over the same five years, exports will grow by an annual average of 3.3% ahead of imports with growth of 2.6%.
We believe the main downside risk to our ports and shipping forecasts for Egypt is political and concerns the run-up to the elections next year. As previously mentioned, the BMI view is that the opposition remains too divided to win the elections. But the desire for change, the government's selective use of repression, potential divisions within the ruling party over the succession and long-standing allegations of electoral fraud could all come together to generate protests and disruption which would have a destabilising effect on the economy.
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Original Source : – Egypt Shipping Market
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