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Construction and infrastructure forecasts were revised down this quarter despite strong Q210 GDP figures. This is in light of our view that the Q2 robust economic growth is not sustainable and our expectation that the weakness recorded in construction in the first quarter could offset the possible gains made in Q2. Our new forecasts for the construction industry value show moderate growth of 1.13% for 2010 and 2.3% in 2011. Accordingly, industry value is forecast to be EUR99bn and EUR103.3bn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, down from our previous forecast of EUR102bn in 2010 and EUR107bn in 2011. Key developments that contributed to forecasts include:
- Railway development was the major project news this quarter. Deutche Bahn announced plans to invest EUR41bn in capital expenditure on its transport network over the next four years. Around 75% of the amount into rail network and station modernisation the remaining 25% of funds will be put toward acquiring new trains. The company also announced it had signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) to develop a railway link, connecting Switzerland and Germany. SBB has agreed to invest CHF1bn (US$945mn) in the rail link, which is likely to become operational by the end of 2014.
- BMI forecasts indicate that infrastructure will account for almost 30% of the total construction sector and gain ground in the coming years as the residential and non-residential building activity stagnates.
- Delays were announced for upgrade work to Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport, as larger security zones must be built in compliance with new EU safety regulations. The airport is now scheduled to be opened on June 3 2012, rather than October 30 2011 as planned. Extra investment of EUR50mn (US$61mn) will be made to upgrade the terminal – this will include the installation of 32 security lines to handle 4,500 passengers and the construction of two pavilions. There will be 36 security screening lines from 2013.
We forecast that Infrastructure industry value is forecast to reach nearly EUR30bn in 2010 and to rise to EUR33bn in 2011 – a real growth of 11%, down from our previous forecast of 18% real growth in 2011. The bullish scenario specifically for the infrastructure sector is based on the German index for orders received in civil engineering, which indicates that orders have been in the black (albeit erratically) in H1 2009 and beginning of 2010. This means growing orderbooks for the industry, which will translate into new activity in the coming months.


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